Management of Decission Science

Management of Decission Science

1. Include a cover page with a list of team members.
2. Provide half a page summary of the decision problem you are addressing. List all the alternatives in consideration, as well as any uncertainties involved in the decision process.
3. First, ignore lobbying and evaluate other alternatives. Create a table that shows the NPV of each alternative. For example,
NPV
Product Mix Strategy
…
Install Housings in Year 1
…
Install Housings in Year 2
…
…
4. Separately, you should submit an Excel file containing all the work that you have done. You may have multiple tabs on your worksheet corresponding to each alternative you are considering. Based on the profits, discuss which alternative is the best (when lobbying is not considered).
5. Next, consider lobbying. Provide a decision tree and use Expected Value Approach to see if you should pursue this option.
a. What alternative is the best if you do not pursue lobbying?
b. Assume that you have chosen to pursue lobbying. What do you do if the lobbying is successful? What do you do if it is not successful?
6. Conduct sensitivity analysis. How does your decision change if the probability that lobbying is successful changes? (Try different values, such as 10%,20%,…, 90%,100%.)
7. Finally, provide a one page note to the company that summarizes your recommendations. Your recommendations should be written in a convincing and professional way. Remember that your report will be read by the CEO of the company.
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