Decision Analysis

A man works for a software company. He requests a pay rise of 10000 pounds. But before doing that he considers the advantages of taking a course to improve his chances – he would have to pay for it himself, though. For 3000 pounds he has an option that can get him a certificate in writing code. Then for 5000 pounds he can do the first module of a more advanced programming course. On the other hand he could decide not to do anything and just apply with his current qualifications. He can only do one course at a time but if he does the first module of the programming course, he can do another module afterwards – this costs 2000 pounds but first he would have to pass ***

With no further qualifications the probability of a rise is 0.2. This increases to 0.4 if he passes the code writing course. If he passes the first module of the programming course his chances go up to 0.6, and if he has both the first and second module it would be 0.8

If he fails the course the probability of getting a pay rise is the same as if he hadn’t done the course in the first place. He has a probability of passing the code writing and first module of 0.9 and the second module of 0.8

a) Using a decision tree, identify and comment on the best decision for him. Consider two years as the time frame for your analysis.

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